After being discovered dead on Walford Common, EastEnders fans have been left wondering who really killed Lucy Beale in the show’s highly-publicised whodunnit plot line.

And with the killer all set to be unmasked on Thursday to mark the BBC show’s 30th anniversary week, criminologist Dr Liz Yardley, director of the centre for Applied Criminology at Birmingham City University, makes an educated guess on the identity of the the mystery murderer…

1. Who are the likely suspects?

Who really killed Lucy Beale from EastEnders?
Max Branning apparently ‘revealed’ Abi as the killer but did she really do it? (BBC)

“Researchers have been telling us for years that homicide is very much a male phenomenon – these crimes are largely male-perpetrated and men are over-represented as victims, says Dr Yardley.

According to the Office for National Statistics, 90% of suspects and around two out of three of victims are male.

“So drawing upon these figures, the killer of Lucy Beale is much more likely to be male than female,” says Dr Yardley. “Therefore, if we are basing our answer to ‘Who killed Lucy?’ on this, we can remove the seven female suspects from the list.”

Conclusion #1: Abi Branning, Cindy Williams, Denise Fox, Jane Beale, Lauren Branning, Pam Coker and Whitney Dean are not likely to be on the list.

2. What’s their relationship to the victim?

Who really killed Lucy Beale from EastEnders?
Could father Ian or twin brother Peter have committed the crime? (BBC)

“Moving on to look at the relationship between victims and perpetrators, women are more likely to be killed by a partner or ex-partner than men – 53% and 7% respectively,” says Dr Yardley.

Stats also suggest that women are more likely than men to be killed by a parent or other family member (17% compared to 4%), while on the other hand, men are more likely than women to be killed by a friend or acquaintance (42% compared to 9%).

“So again, if we are going by general trends and patterns, we can forget about Jay Brown and Les Coker,” she adds.

Conclusion #2: We can narrow it down to the final five – Lee Carter (ex-partner), Max Branning (ex-partner), Ian Beale (father), Peter Beale (brother) and Ben Mitchell (half-uncle).

3. Who is the killer?

Who really killed Lucy Beale from EastEnders?
Exes Max Branning and Lee Carter are likely to be on top of the list (BBC)

So, going back to the figures that suggest women are more likely to be killed by a partner or ex-partner than men, two people emerge as the most likely suspects.

“If I was asked to say who I think the killer is – I would say… Max Branning and Lee Carter – in that order,” says Dr Yardley.

Conclusion #3: Max Branning or Lee Carter.

4. And, more importantly why are we interested in the Lucy Beale murder?

Who really killed Lucy Beale from EastEnders?
Is Lucy Beale the ‘ideal victim’? (Thinkstock)

Dr Yardley believes the answer lies in the “ideal victim” concept.

“Criminologists often draw upon this concept when discussing news coverage of crime victims,” says Dr Yardley. “Ideal victims are people whose status as a victim is not questioned, they are seen as worthy and deserving of sympathy and compassion.

“By contrast, there are those whose victimhood is less secure, who are seen as less deserving and even culpable to a degree.”

According to Dr Yardley, physical appearance often comes into account in ideal victimhood.

“A young, white, blonde woman – indeed, like Lucy Beale – will generate more interest than an older, non-white, man,” she says. “There is a hierarchy of victimisation, where those who acquire the status of ideal victim attract massive levels of attention and those who don’t go virtually unnoticed.”

5. Would “Who killed Masood Ahmed?” or “Who killed Patrick Trueman?” be equally interesting?

Who really killed Lucy Beale from EastEnders?
Would Patrick Trueman and Masood Ahmed make compelling murder victims? (BBC)

“I think not,” says Dr Yardley. “And that says more about us as a society than it does about the fictional world of Albert Square.”