Which London boroughs are likely to stub out cigarettes?

In 2019, the UK government set out a target to achieve ‘Smoke-free’ status by 2030.

But forecasts reveal that 97% of England will miss this target – with only two London boroughs on track to meet it.

Based on current Public Health England smoking prevalence and quit rates, England will be entirely smoke-free by 2051, which is 21 years later than the original government goal.

The extra 21 years will cost over £40.4 billion in local authority social care and NHS costs.

UK set to go smoke free by 2051

According to NHS data, there were over half a million smoking related hospital admissions in 2019/2020, which is 10% higher than it was a decade earlier.

Research conducted by Vape Club as part of the ‘Smokefree by 2030’ campaign uses the latest PHE data to calculate the future trajectory of smokers in each county.

Hammersmith and Fulham is set to be the first area in England reach the government target, 5 years early in 2025.

In 2016, the borough was reported to have one of the highest smoking rates in London.

Since then its trajectory has changed with a high quit rate - the latest PHE data shows that 7.54% of smokers in the borough quit annually.

Westminster follows close behind, predicted to stub out cigarettes by 2028.

UK set to go smoke free by 2051

Islington, Tower Hamlets and Richmond slightly miss out on the government’s target, with a projection to become smoke-free in 2034.

In Richmond 8% of the population are smokers, with a low 3.37% quit rate.

Kingston, Hounslow and Lewisham fell somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, with 2035, 2040 and 2043 Smokefree predictions respectively.

Boroughs that were the furthest from the Government’s 2030 target, however, were Croydon, Bexley and Wandsworth – with a 2051 projection.

Wandsworth fared the worst out of all London boroughs, with 13.5% smokers and only a 2.14% quit rate.